Assessment on the Effects of Covid-19 on International Trade

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The COVID pandemic fundamentally differs from previous episodes in two notable ways: (1) the transmission of diseases has been much quicker than in past episodes, causing large-scale containment policies that are implemented almost synchronized globally, and (2) abrupt disruption of value chains that leads to a sudden global economic end. Concerning the number of new passage arrivals and the openness to and dependency on commerce and foreign investment, and not least the pacing and rigourousness of government preventive action, the COVID-19 pandemic has various effects for communities and economies, including in Africa. In Mauritius and other countries the international economics team has thoroughly analyzed and studied COVID-19’s effect on trade, logistics and tourism. Different methods were used to assess the effect on the economies of the planet of the coronavirus. For eg, UNCTAD (2020) indicated that the EU (USD 15.6 billion), the United States (USD 5.8 billion) and Japan (USD 5.2 billion) were three of the most affected economies with an impact on trade flows. This analytical research only provides a small gage on short and direct trade impacts of COVID-19, but market shortages are limited to China, and supply capability remains stable for the rest of the planet. Similarly, Maliszewska, Mattoo and van der Mensbrugghe (2020) have observed that developing countries are going to decrease their GDP by 2.5% and advanced countries by 1.8% in the global pandemic case, if the world GDP dropped by 2% below the baseline. The decreases will be doubled in the intensified pandemic case. In the wider global pandemic scenario, a 3.9 per cent drop in global GDP will occur in the areas most interconnected by commerce and/or where tourism plays an important part in economic growth with the greatest GDP losses. Sub-Saharan African (SSA) and Middle East and North African (MENA) countries are the least affected by both situations with an estimated GDP loss of around 3%.

A rapid rise in global demand for the associated COVID-19 medical supply, which surpassed current levels of domestic capacity, led to increased import demand and simultaneously higher costs, was the most immediate commercial consequence of the new coronavirus pandemic. In the case of medical masks for example, the export restrictions imposed by the major economies faced by the shortage lead to more price rises, according to the World Bank.

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

The effects of COVID-19 (Baldwin & Toimura, 2020) on Direct Supply Disruptions (local/regional lockdown & forced production stoppage), higher transport costs as a result of enforced rules, and the contagion effect of supply chains, which increased shocks to direct supply (the manufacturing industry in less affected countries found them harder and more expensive) (delayed purchases & investments).The reporters who are affected by the pandemic itself and the economies that are most reliant on trade with these countries through export/import connections (forward/backward links in global value chains, GVCs). Increased disruption and some management concepts in supply chains (only in time and lean production of limited input stocks) increased the world economy’s vulnerability to the shock. However, the effect is asymmetrical because of the structure of the value-added chains at the business level. GVCs, including China, Italy, Spain or Germany, are more affected (for example, the automobile industry) and rely on adversely affected regional and international hubs.

The extent of global volatility has risen and has a negative effect on capital markets. Greater volatility and decreased demand reduce companies’ investment levels that can have dire complex implications (lower accumulation, lower growth rates).Once again, individual countries and economies’ groups have taken uneventful measures to alleviate the recession, with unfavorable effects on public accounts and global debt levels close to 2007-08. This raises the W-form scenario likelihood (the initially assumed V-shape with a strong recession followed by sharp recovery is already highly unlikely).

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

The following are the primary objective of this study;

1. To investigate the effects of covid 19 on international trade
2. To investigate if the pandemic has disrupted the import/export of goods and service

RESEARCH QUESTION

1. How has covid 19 affected international trade?
2. Has covid 19 disrupted the import/export of goods and services ?

SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

This study will be of importance to the countries involved in trading, the government and this study will also be of benefit to researchers and scholars who will wish to know more about the study.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The purpose of this research is to assess the effect of covid 19 on international trade and the sample respondent of this study will be Nigeria

LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

Finance,time constraint and lack of research materials were the major challenges faced by the researcher during the course of this study

DEFINITION OF TERMS

COVID 19:Corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19) is defined as an illness caused by a novel corona virus called severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2

INTERNATIONAL TRADE: International trade means the cross-border or territorial exchange of capital, commodities, and services whether the products or services are required or lacking